The Art of Uncertainty

Chalkdust

26 February 2025

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David Spiegelhalter is the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge. His most recent book, The Art of Uncertainty (Waterstones, Penguin), is a sequel to its well-regarded predecessor, The Art of Statistics, and focuses on how to think about statistics and how statistical theory is employed in almost every field to make sense of the vast amount of data and uncertainty we find in the world around us.

Style

Spiegelhalter enviably writes in a style which is clear and precise while remaining engaging and conversational. His explanations of probability theory are interspersed with practical examples, often using high profile cases with which Spiegelhalter was directly involved. The reader is left with a strong sense of how statistical principles can (and can’t) discern fact from fiction across modern society.

Control

A wide breadth of probability theory is covered, from the core principles such as Bayes theorem which are central to an A level or basic undergraduate course to more advanced topics like extreme value theory and deep learning. Spiegelhalter strives to make the book accessible to those without a mathematics education, and as such avoids equations or relegates them to footnotes where possible. Although there are parts of the book where a degree or an A level may be helpful to make the full detail more digestible, the core message of the book lies not in the detail but in illustrating the nuance involved in statistical reasoning and encouraging readers to think critically about the statistics they encounter in their lives.

Damage

Spiegelhalter masterfully distils the messy reality of applied statistics down to crystal clear principles. Statistics are more ever present in our lives than even a mathematician may realise, and this book equips the reader to think carefully about what statistics do and do not signify while also acknowledging the frequent need for compromise between mathematical rigour and effective communication.

Aggression

I would recommend this book to anyone who would like a greater appreciation for the importance of statistics to modern life. It will force you to question how we really know anything in a world with so much randomness at play.

You can vote for your favourite book on the Book of the Year shortlist below. The winning book will be crowned the Chalkdust Readers’ Choice. Voting closes at midday (GMT) on Wednesday 26 February 2024.

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